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Spring 2014
ISSN 0890-913X
Volume 29, Number 2

Business Cycle Volatility: Does the European-Style Safety Net Help?

Tomi Ovaska, Youngstown State University
Joseph Palardy, Youngstown State University
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TheJournalofPrivateEnterprise29(2),2014,5781BusinessCycleVolatility:DoestheEuropean-StyleSafetyNetHelp?TomiOvaskaYoungstownStateUniversityJosephPalardyYoungstownStateUniversity______________________________________________________AbstractTheglobalrecessionof20072009raisedaninterestingquestion:aretheEuropeanwelfarestateswiththeirlargegovernmentsandextensivesocialsafetynetsmoreimmunetobusinesscyclesthantheirincomepeersintheOECD?Inthispaper,wetestempiricallywhetherthathasbeenthecaseinthelongrun.Oursampleincludestwenty-oneOECDcountriesandathirty-nine-yeartimeperiodfrom1970through2007.Ourtestsmeasurewhetherthelevelofgovernmentinterventionineconomiesissignificantlyrelatedtothevariabilityinincomegrowth.______________________________________________________JELcodes:E32,H11,I38,N10,O11,P51Keywords:Baxter-Kingfilter,Businesscycle,Governmentsize,Safetynet,Welfarestate,GrowthvolatilityI.IntroductionVolatilitySynonyms:instability,unpredictability,precariousness,explosivenatureAntonyms:stability,constancy,steadiness,firmness,solidity,permanence,immovabilityThegreatvolatilityinmarketoutcomeshasarguablybeenthebiggestshortcomingincapitalismssuccessfulruninthelastfewcenturies.Infact,inhistheoryofhistoricmaterialism,KarlMarxarguedthatthecapitalistsystem,whilehistoricallynecessaryinhelpingtoincreasenationscapacitytoproducegoods,willfacecrisesofincreasingseverityovertime.Itsendwillcomewhenthemassesoflaborerswillnotputupwiththecrisesandsubsistencelevelwages57
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