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Summer 2022
ISSN 0890-913X
Volume 37, Number 2

Price Fluctuation of Agricultural Products: Can the Theory of Complex Phenomena Explain It Better?

Oluwaseun Samuel Oduniyi, Texas Tech University
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TheJournalofPrivateEnterprise37(2),2022,47-55PriceFluctuationofAgriculturalProducts:CantheTheoryofComplexPhenomenaExplainItBetter?OluwaseunSamuelOduniyiTexasTechUniversityAbstractThefoodsystemandthegrowthoftheagriculturalsectorarethreatenedbyagriculturalpricefluctuations.ThispaperadoptsHayekstheoryofcomplexphenomenatoexplorethesimpleandcomplexcomponentsofsuchfluctuations.Italsoidentifiesvariousunderlyingfactorsthatneedtobeaddressedtominimizethefluctuationsandmeetthefoodneedsofagrowingpopulation.JELCodes:B13,Q02,Q11,Q18Keywords:Hayek,pricefluctuation,complexity,agriculturalcommoditiesI.IntroductionAgriculturehasbeenamajorindustryfromtimetotimeinthehistoryofhumankind.Anditplaysavitalroleintheeconomicdevelopmentofmanycountries.AccordingtotheWorldBank(2018),agriculturalactivitiesaccountedfor4percentofglobalGDPin2018.Morethan25percentoftheseactivitiesoccurindevelopingcountries.Thereisnodoubtthatagricultureenhancesfoodsecurityandreducespoverty,especiallyamongtheruralpoorinAfrica,whereagricultureprovidesalivelihoodforatleast52percentoftheeconomicallyactivepopulation(Davisetal.2017).TheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyidentifiesagriculture(morespecifically,sustainableandinclusivefoodsystems)asacriticalmeansofattainingitsSustainableDevelopmentGoals(or2030Agenda),whichweredevelopedin2015andsupplantedtheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals.However,thefoodsystemandthegrowthofagriculturearethreatenedbypricefluctuation,climatechange,andmanyotherfactorsinsub-SaharanAfrica.FeedingtheworldpopulationprojectedbytheUnitedNationsFoodandAgricultureOrganizationtobeabout9.7billionpeopleby2050(Bruinsma2009),withnearlyallofthepopulationincreaseoccurringindevelopingcountriesinthefutureisbecomingamirage.Thebiggestfactorsthatthreatenthefoodsystem
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