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Spring 2005
ISSN 0890-913X
Volume 20, Number 2

Private Accounts as a Solution to Social Security's Debt

Liqun Liu, Private Enterprise Research Center Texas A&M University
Andrew J. Rettenmaier, Private Enterprise Research Center Texas A&M University
Thomas R. Saving, Private Enterprise Research Center Texas A&M University
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/jpe/index.php?action=ajax&rs=GDMgetPage&rsargs[]=999663.pdf&rsargs[]=0
PrivateAccountsasaSolutiontoSocialSecurity=sDebtLiqunLiuAndrewJ.RettenmaierThomasR.SavingPrivateEnterpriseResearchCenterTexasA&MUniversitySocialSecurityreformwillreceiveseriousconsiderationduringthenextfewyearsgiventhecurrentpoliticalclimateandtheincreasedrealizationthatthefundingshortfallswhichbeginin2018areprojectedtogrowthroughouttheprojectionhorizon.Reformscantakemanyforms,butthosethatincludeprepaymentthroughthevehicleofpersonalretirementaccountsappeartobeincreasinginpopularity.Suchreformshavealreadybeenenactedinothercountries.Fundamentally,SocialSecurityisfinancedbyintergenerationaltransfersratherthanbyresourcesbasedonsavingandinvestment.Intergenerationaltransferfinancing,orpay-as-you-gofinancing,isverysensitivetodemographicchanges.Withthesharpdecreaseintheworker/retireeratiocausedbyincreasedlifeexpectancyandreducedbirthrate,theSocialSecuritystatusquo(inwhichthetaxrateandbenefitscheduleremainunchanged)isfinanciallyinsolvent.AsofJanuary1,2004,thetotalfinancingshortfall,measuredbythepresentvalueofscheduledbenefitsinexcessofthescheduledtaxpayments,is$11.9trillion.ThefinancialcrisisoftheSocialSecurityprogramcanberesolvedbytransformingthisprogramintoaretirementsystembasedonprivatelyownedsavingsaccounts.Afundamentalissueofthetransitionfromtheexistingpay-as-you-gosystemtoapre-paidsystemisthedistributionofthetransitioncostsbetweencurrentandfuturegenerations.Inanypay-as-you-goretirementsystemthecurrentgeneration,consistingofthosecurrentlyworkingandretired,isowedadebtintheformofaccruedretirementbenefits.Anymovetoaprepaidsystembasedonprivateaccountsmustfindwaystopay
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