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Spring 2015
ISSN 0890-913X
Volume 30, Number 1

Climate Change, the Knowledge Problem, and the Good Life

Saifedean Ammous , Lebanese American University
Edmund Phelps , Center on Capitalism and Society, Columbia University
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TheJournalofPrivateEnterprise30(1),2015,3544ClimateChange,theKnowledgeProblem,andtheGoodLifeSaifedeanAmmousLebaneseAmericanUniversityEdmundPhelpsCenteronCapitalismandSociety,ColumbiaUniversity______________________________________________________AbstractWemustaddressthechallengeofclimatechangethroughtheprismoftheknowledgeproblemandnolessimportantfromtheperspectiveofthegoodlife.Whendiscussingoursocietysbigproblems,wetendtoassumethatwehavetheknowledgerequiredtoactonthem.Wealsotendtoassumethatourintentionswilltranslateseamlesslytothedesiredconsequences.Knowledgeproblemsarewhybothoftheseassumptionscanbewrongandwhytheycanleadtounintendedoutcomes,someofthemdisastrous.Thispaperbrieflyoutlinessomeoftheproblemswithourknowledgeofclimateandenergysystems,howtheseproblemscanaffectplanningandpoliciesonclimatechange,andhowtheseplansandpoliciescometobearontheconceptionofthegoodlife.Thecaseofbiofuelspoliciesillustratestheseproblems.______________________________________________________JELCodes:B53,H23,Q01Keywords:climate,carbon,emissions,biofuels,knowledgeThecurioustaskofeconomicsistodemonstratetomenhowlittletheyknowaboutwhattheyimaginetheycandesign.”FriedrichHayekI.TheUnknowabilityofFutureAdvanceFiftyyearsago,thethoughtofsevenbillionpeopleonearthseemedimpossible.Anotherfiftyyearsbeforethat,theideaofthreebillionpeopleonearthlookedunimaginable.Twohundredyearsago,theideaoftwobillionpeoplewouldhavesoundedhereticaltoThispaperisexpandedfromapresentationPhelpsgaveatSt.JamesPalace,London,onMay27,2009.SomeofthethoughtsherewerealsosketchedearlierinPhelps(2009).AndportionsheredrawonAmmoussdoctoralthesisinColumbiaUniversityssustainabledevelopmentprogram(2011).35
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