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Spring 2004
ISSN 0890-913X
Volume 19, Number 2

Real Government Reform

Philip E. Graves, University of Colorado
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RealGovernmentReformPhilipE.GravesUniversityofColoradoPoliticianshaveanincentivetorunlargedeficitssinceincreasingspendingispoliticallydesirableforthemwhileincreasingtaxesisnot.Additionally,politicianshaveincentivestopromoteexpendituresthatbenefitthembutthatarenotintheinterestsofthegeneralvoters,specialinterestabusesbeingofparticularconcern.Publicchoicetheorists,suchasBuchanan(1962)andOlsen(1965),asclassicsourcesamongmany,havelongbeenawareoftheflawedincentivesfacingpoliticians.Theprecedingproblemsarealsowellknowntothosedevelopingmodelsofgovernment(e.g.,Becker1983,BrennanandBuchanan1979,Niskanen1975,Peltzman1976,andStigler1971).Inmodelsofwidelyvaryingtypes,equilibriumspendingispredictedtobenon-optimallylargeandbudgetrulesareseenasneededconstraintsonpoliticians'taxandspendingbehavior.Thepredictionsofthevariousmodelsofgovernmentareborneoutindatashowingasteadygrowthinthesizeofgovernmentinoursociety.Averagingoverdecades,tosmooththeimpactofbusinesscycles,thepercentofGDP(nationaloutputor,equivalently,income)spentbyalllevelsofgovernmentwas22.8(1950s),25.1(1960s),28.2(1970s),30.6(1980s),and30.5(1990-1998).ItislikelythatthisgrowthwasnotdesiredbyAmericanvoters,assuggestedbythevariousmodelsofgovernmentcitedabove.However,themechanismproposedheretoreformgovernmentallowsforthepossibilitythatgovernmentspendingisasuperiorgood.Thelargedeficitsofthe1980sandearly1990sresultedinthevariousBalancedBudgetAmendment(hereafterBBA)proposalsas
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