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Winter 2020

ISSN 0890-913X

Volume 35, Number 4

Categories: Winter 2020 | Pandemic | COVID-19 cases

COVID-19 Case Growth vs. Outcomes: Comparing Regions in the United States

Stephen C. Miller, Troy University

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TheJournalofPrivateEnterprise35(4),2020,29–41COVID-19CaseGrowthvs.Outcomes:ComparingRegionsintheUnitedStatesStephenC.MillerTroyUniversity__________________________________________________________AbstractThispaperexaminestheconnectionbetweenregionalCOVID-19casegrowthandoutcomesintheUnitedStatesduringthespringandsummerof2020.IntheNortheast,rapidgrowthinCOVID-19casesduringMarchandAprilledtorapidgrowthinhospitalizationsanddeaths.IntheSouth,casegrowthinJuneandJulywassimilartocasegrowthintheNortheastduringMarchandApril,buthospitalizationspeakedatlessthanhalfthelevelanddeathspeakedataquarterofthelevelofthoseintheNortheast.TrendsintheWestandMidwestwererelativelyflatbycomparison,withslowercasegrowthandlowerlevelsofhospitalizationsanddeathsthanintheSouth.__________________________________________________________JELCodes:I18,C46Keywords:publichealth,governmentpolicy,COVID-19,pandemicI.IntroductionTherapidgrowthofCOVID-19casesintheSouthernUnitedStatesandsomeWesternStatesinMay2020wasdescribedinthemediaasapossible“secondwave”ofinfections.1Thecasedatamostlysuggest,however,thatthiscasegrowthinSouthernstateswaspartoftheregion’s“firstwave”ofinfections,whichcametwomonthslaterthanitdidinmostNortheasternstates.TherapidgrowthininfectionsinMarchandAprilinNortheasternstateswasnotablydifferentfromthegrowthintheSouthinJuneandJuly.Themainsimilaritybetweenthetworegionsisthepatternincasegrowth,buttheresultingnumbersofpopulation-adjustedhospitalizationsanddeathswereproportionallymuchlower.IntheWesternUnitedStates,caseincreasesduringJuneandJulyledtoincreasesinhospitalizationsanddeathsthatdidnotmatchtheproportionsofthoseintheNortheast.IntheMidwest,JulyandAugustCOVID-19caseincreaseshadminimalimpactson1See,forexample,Achenbachetal.(2020).

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Title	COVID-19 Case Growth vs. Outcomes: Comparing Regions in the United States
Authors/Creators:	Stephen C. Miller, Troy University
Year:	2020
Volume:	35
Number:	4
Pages:	29 - 41
Publisher:	The Association of Private Enterprise Education
ISSN:	0890-913X
Document Type:	Articles
Keywords:	public health, government policy, COVID-19, pandemic

Citation:
C. Miller, Stephen / 2020. "COVID-19 Case Growth vs. Outcomes: Comparing Regions in the United States." The Journal of Private Enterprise, 35(4): 29-41.